Mittwoch, 12. Dezember 2012

Post Traumatic Crash Disorder

Ich frage mich jeden Tag ob ich auch darunter leide, aber irgendwie glaube ich weiterhin, dass der traumatische (Salami?-)Crash erst noch kommt.
Woran erkennt man, dass man selbst zum irrationalen Aktien-Permabären geworden ist?

“After two stock collapses in one decade—2000-2002 and 2007-2009—along with scandals, the rise of high-frequency trading and worries over Washington’s ability to rein in debt, Americans are pulling out of the market. Individual investors yanked a net $900 billion from U.S. equity funds since January 2000, according to fund flow tracker EPFR Global. Stocks and stock mutual funds now make up 37.9% of the average U.S. household’s financial assets, down from 50.5% during the height of the tech-stock boom in 2000, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve.”

Solange es solches "Bärenfutter" gibt, schaffe ich es einfach nicht "bullish" zu sein:

Secular Bear Markets - Volatility Without Return by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.


"Present market and economic conditions highlight a fairly dramatic disparity between continued economic and valuation headwinds (particularly on a “cyclical” horizon of 18-24 months) and complacent short-term conditions that rest on the continuation of massive monetary and fiscal imbalances. It’s obvious even from a casual observation of economic conditions that these imbalances are inconsistent with a healthy economy; short term interest rates near zero, monetary base at 18% of nominal GDP (more than twice the level that would be consistent with short-term yields at even 2%), and a Federal deficit near 10% of GDP. Because it is an accounting identity that the deficit of one sector must be the surplus of another, and neither consumers nor our trading partners are running surpluses, it follows that our massive Federal deficit has temporarily driven corporate profit margins to historic highs about 70% above their norms even while wages as a percent of GDP have reached a record low.

Despite these imbalances, as long as Wall Street collectively closes its ears and hums, everything seems to be just fine. Sure, valuations are rich on the basis of normalized earnings, but stocks have performed well in hindsight. Sure, short-term interest rates are at zero, but investors have found what they believe is value in the higher interest rates available on junk debt. Sure, the labor force participation rate has plunged back to 1980 levels while every cohort of the population has lost jobs in the past 3 years except workers over the age of 55, but the payroll figures remain positive to-date. Sure, Europe is already in recession, with a largely insolvent banking sector, but for now, words have been enough to talk investors down from concern about any of that...."

Die Lage bleibt undurchsichtig, oder wie der Fondsmanager und Börsensentiment-Experte Stefan Riße kürzlich schön formulierte:

"Fazit: Das Stimmungsbild zu lesen gleicht derzeit wieder der Interpretation eines expressionistischen Bildes."

Ist die Stimmung viel zu gut? ‎(11. ‎Dezember ‎2012, ‏‎12:14:55)

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